In the face of rapidly ageing populations and increasing costs of health care provision, questions continue to be raised about the long-term sustainability of publicly funded health care programmes around the world. But despite increasing evidence of dynamic changes in epidemiology, most official health service planning models continue to rely on the implicit assumption that age-specific requirements for services (and by implication age-specific needs for care) will remain constant across future years (‘constant-use models'). In this seminar, I will discuss the advantages of dynamic ‘changing needs’ planning models, compared to ‘constant-use’ planning models, and consider an empirical framework that integrates population needs directly into health service planning. Using Australian survey data, I will empirically illustrate the difference between static health service planning approaches to dynamic needs-driven planning models.

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